Home Mortgage Rate

According to data released last week by Freddie Mac, a US-based purchaser of home mortgage loans, mortgage rates rose a few percentage points last week, although 30-year mortgages remained below the 6 per cent mark for a sixth week since May 13, 2004.

Interest rates on 30-year mortgages had gone up to 6.34 per cent by May 13 and then drifted downwards as the economy cooled during late spring and early summer. Interest rates went up to 5.83 per cent last week from 5.77 per cent the week before. Economists at Freddie Mac hope interest rates on 30-year mortgages reach 6 per cent by the end of the year, because this could fuel a growth in single-family construction and home sales.

Meanwhile, interest rates on 15-year mortgages went up to 5.22 per cent last week, as compared with 5.15 per cent the week before. Interest rates on one year adjustable rate mortgages rose from 3.97 per cent to 4 per cent. Add on fees or points for 30-year and 15-year mortgages were at 0.8 points. Add on fees for one year adjustable rate mortgages were at 0.7 points.

However, economists at Freddie Mac estimate that home price appreciation across the U.S. will slow down as interest rates rise next year. This slowdown will have an impact on economic growth. Over the past three years, home prices have risen more than twice as fast compared with wages. According to government data, personal income rose by 9.3 per cent from 2001 onwards, whereas prices for homes rose 19 per cent in the same period.

Housing industry forecasters, including the economists at Freddie Mac, say that U.S. home prices will come down from last year’s 7.6 per cent to 6.1 per cent this year and will go down to 3.7 per cent next year. Economists say that most homeowners have been refinancing their mortgages to turn home equity into cash, which they have used to purchase assets, such as cars and dishwashers.

The slowdown in home prices can already be seen, with prices for existing homes rising just 0.2 per cent in July from June, after rising 14 per cent since February this year. Prices for new homes have actually dropped by 2.6 per cent. The refinancing of mortgages is expected to fall by at least 48 per cent this year.

In the meantime, Federal Reserve and Wall Street economists are worried at the lack of data to indicate whether or not the U.S. is undergoing a speculative bubble in real estate prices. They have noticed that the increase in house prices has exceeded gains in income and rent in recent years and are anxious that the high prices for homes could pop much like the Internet bubble did in 2000.

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